{"id":630,"date":"2026-05-25T13:02:37","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T04:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/copi-tools.com\/vn\/?p=630"},"modified":"2026-05-25T13:02:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T04:02:40","slug":"crude-oil-2026-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/copi-tools.com\/vn\/crude-oil-2026-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 D\u1ea7u Th\u00f4 2026: C\u00fa S\u1ed1c Cung Hormuz, \u0110\u1ec9nh 144 USD v\u00e0 Giao D\u1ecbch CFD"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 2026<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n sau xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. Theo Oil Market Report<\/em> th\u00e1ng 5\/2026 c\u1ee7a IEA, k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 28\/2\/2026, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz khi\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh 14,4 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y (mb\/d)<\/strong>, t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, v\u00e0 North Sea Dated t\u1eebng ch\u1ea1m 144 USD\/th\u00f9ng<\/strong>, sau \u0111\u00f3 r\u01a1i d\u01b0\u1edbi 100 USD v\u00e0 quanh 110 USD<\/strong> v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00e1o c\u00e1o. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ea7u CFD, \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i chu k\u1ef3 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u2014 m\u00e0 l\u00e0 b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra \u00e1p l\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00ean chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf phong t\u1ecfa Hormuz, l\u00fd do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea7u\u2013cung, k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n IEA (m\u1edf d\u1ea7n eo bi\u1ec3n t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 6), v\u00e0 g\u1ee3i \u00fd cho giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ea7u CFD<\/a> trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 2026: S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u IEA th\u00e1ng 5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

IEA h\u1ea1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ea1nh so v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh. Cung th\u00e1ng 4\/2026: 95,1 mb\/d<\/strong><\/span> (gi\u1ea3m 1,8 mb\/d so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 3); t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t l\u0169y k\u1ebf t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 2: 12,8 mb\/d. C\u1ea7u c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 2026: 104 mb\/d<\/strong>, gi\u1ea3m 420 ngh\u00ecn th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y (kb\/d) so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 \u2014 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 1,3 mb\/d so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc xung \u0111\u1ed9t. Qu\u00fd II\/2026 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111au nh\u1ea5t: c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m 2,45 mb\/d y-o-y, trong \u0111\u00f3 OECD gi\u1ea3m 930 kb\/d v\u00e0 non-OECD gi\u1ea3m 1,5 mb\/d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn tranh b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u 28\/2\/2026. H\u01a1n m\u01b0\u1eddi tu\u1ea7n sau, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y: h\u01a1n 14 mb\/d b\u1ecb \u201cshut in\u201d, t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 chu\u1ea9n dao \u0111\u1ed9ng theo t\u1eebng headline \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch CFD, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 v\u1edbi c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u1eadt l\u00fd mb\/d \u2014 hai th\u1ee9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1ch nhau trong v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

mb\/d (million barrels per day) l\u00e0 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng chu\u1ea9n trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u. C\u00e1 nh\u00e2n t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng theo d\u00f5i mb\/d quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u2014 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t v\u1eadt l\u00fd v\u00e0 ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean cung d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hormuz l\u00e0 eo h\u1eb9p n\u1ed1i V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng; kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n n\u0103m d\u1ea7u v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111i qua \u0111\u00e2y. Khi t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, d\u00f9 gi\u1ebfng v\u1eabn khai th\u00e1c, th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u2014 ho\u1eb7c t\u00edch t\u1ee5 tr\u00ean b\u1edd, ho\u1eb7c bu\u1ed9c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec sao Brent nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n trong kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u00e0y<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ea7u Trung \u0110\u00f4ng xu\u1ea5t sang ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 theo Brent\/Dubai. Th\u00e1ng 4, North Sea Dated trung b\u00ecnh 120,36 USD\/th\u00f9ng<\/strong>, t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 16,50 USD\/th\u00f9ng so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc; gi\u00e1 giao ngay sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f2n cao h\u01a1n. WTI g\u1eafn v\u1edbi logistics n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ch\u1ecbu risk premium; ch\u00eanh Brent\u2013WTI n\u1edbi r\u1ed9ng khi xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u V\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ee9t g\u00e3y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ec9 xem t\u1ed3n kho WTI tu\u1ea7n \u2014 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh 2026, b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n dashboard t\u1eadp trung V\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quy m\u00f4 ng\u01b0ng s\u1ea3n: B\u1ea3ng OPEC+ th\u00e1ng 4\/2026<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Qu\u1ed1c gia<\/th>Cung th\u00e1ng 4\/2026 (mb\/d)<\/th>So v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
\u1ea2 R\u1eadp X\u00ea \u00dat<\/td>6,98<\/td>-3,18<\/td><\/tr>
Iraq<\/td>1,35<\/td>-2,85<\/td><\/tr>
Kuwait<\/td>0,57<\/td>-2,02<\/td><\/tr>
UAE<\/td>2,44<\/td>-0,94<\/td><\/tr>
Nga<\/td>8,83<\/td>-0,81<\/td><\/tr>
T\u1ed5ng OPEC+<\/strong><\/td>34,13<\/strong><\/td>\u2014<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Ngu\u1ed3n: IEA Oil Market Report, May 2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n \n S\u1ea3n L\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf vs M\u1ee5c Ti\u00eau OPEC+ (Th\u00e1ng 4\/2026, mb\/d)<\/text>\n \n 0<\/text>\n \n 3<\/text>\n \n 6<\/text>\n \n 9<\/text>\n \n 12<\/text>\n \n \n \n \n 6.98<\/text>\n \u1ea2 R\u1eadp<\/text>\n X\u00ea \u00dat<\/text>\n \n \n 8.83<\/text>\n Nga<\/text>\n \n \n 2.44<\/text>\n UAE<\/text>\n \n \n 1.35<\/text>\n Iraq<\/text>\n \n \n 0.57<\/text>\n Kuwait<\/text>\n \n Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf<\/text>\n \n M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau<\/text>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: IEA OMR th\u00e1ng 5\/2026<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng phong t\u1ecfa th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh 14,4 mb\/d<\/strong>; t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t l\u0169y k\u1ebf v\u01b0\u1ee3t 1 t\u1ef7 th\u00f9ng. Th\u00e0nh th\u1eadt m\u00e0 n\u00f3i, \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u2014 n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n quen so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t leo thang Trung \u0110\u00f4ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, h\u00e3y n\u00e2ng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00ean m\u1ed9t b\u1eadc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 144 USD xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 100 USD r\u1ed3i v\u1ec1 110 USD: V\u00ec sao?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n \n Gi\u00e1 D\u1ea7u B\u00ecnh Qu\u00e2n Th\u00e1ng (USD\/th\u00f9ng)<\/text>\n \n $50<\/text>\n \n $70<\/text>\n \n $90<\/text>\n \n $110<\/text>\n \n $130<\/text>\n \n \n Jan-25<\/text>\n Apr-25<\/text>\n Jul-25<\/text>\n Oct-25<\/text>\n Jan-26<\/text>\n Apr-26<\/text>\n \n \n \n $120.4<\/text>\n \n $98.6<\/text>\n \n Chi\u1ebfn tranh 28\/2<\/text>\n \n Brent<\/text>\n \n WTI<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 g\u1ea7n 50 USD\/th\u00f9ng<\/strong> ch\u1ec9 trong th\u00e1ng 4 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh hai l\u1edbp th\u00f4ng tin: s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1ed3n kho\/run l\u1ecdc th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 tin \u0111\u1ed3n \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n M\u1ef9\u2013Iran v\u1ec1 m\u1edf l\u1ea1i eo bi\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ed3n kho gi\u1ea3m k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ed3n kho quan s\u00e1t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m 129 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng (mb) th\u00e1ng 3 v\u00e0 th\u00eam 117 mb th\u00e1ng 4 \u2014 t\u1ed5ng 250 mb trong hai th\u00e1ng<\/strong> (t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 4 mb\/d). Ri\u00eang t\u1ed3n kho tr\u00ean b\u1edd th\u00e1ng 4: -170 mb (-5,7 mb\/d); d\u1ea7u tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n t\u0103ng 53 mb do t\u00e0u b\u1ecb k\u1eb9t. OECD tr\u00ean b\u1edd gi\u1ea3m 146 mb (-4,9 mb\/d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So v\u1edbi c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 n\u0103m 2022, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea7u l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y nhanh h\u01a1n v\u00ec c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u ch\u00e2u \u00c1 n\u1eb1m tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean tuy\u1ebfn cung b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ee9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spread term structure b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u khan hi\u1ebfm giao ngay<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Spread th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n WTI v\u00e0 Brent cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4 quanh 5 USD\/th\u00f9ng<\/strong> \u2014 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u backwardation. Premium North Sea Dated so v\u1edbi ICE Brent t\u1eebng l\u00ean k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 35 USD\/th\u00f9ng gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 4, r\u1ed3i v\u1ec1 kho\u1ea3ng 3 USD \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 5 khi gi\u00e1 ph\u1eb3ng gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spread qu\u00e1 r\u1ed9ng \u2014 scalping Brent CFD ch\u1ec9 theo headline d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u201cph\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f2n\u201d. Trong th\u00e1ng 4, North Sea Dated dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong bi\u00ean g\u1ea7n 50 USD\/th\u00f9ng; prompt spread WTI\/Brent futures kho\u1ea3ng 5 USD cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn tr\u1ea3 premium cho th\u00f9ng giao ngay. Khi premium v\u1eadt l\u00fd\u2013paper thu h\u1eb9p nhanh (t\u1eeb 35 USD xu\u1ed1ng 3 USD), \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 ph\u1eb3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u201c\u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1\u201d m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n tin t\u1ee9c, ch\u1ee9 ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc cung \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u: H\u00f3a d\u1ea7u, h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u ch\u00e2u \u00c1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f3a d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u00f2n n\u1eb7ng nh\u1ea5t<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n feedstock h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u t\u1eeb V\u1ecbnh (naphtha, LPG) khan hi\u1ebfm. Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng; gi\u00e1 jet g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p ba sau khi xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m Trung \u0110\u00f4ng b\u1ecb c\u1eaft, r\u1ed3i h\u1ea1 nh\u1eb9 khi h\u1ee7y chuy\u1ebfn. IEA c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 cao, kinh t\u1ebf y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u00f3p c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00f4i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb long d\u1ea7u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng m\u00f9a l\u00e1i xe m\u00f9a h\u00e8 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u2014 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong c\u1ea7u 2026 d\u1ed1c h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Nh\u1eadt, H\u00e0n c\u1eaft nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u m\u1ea1nh<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u Kpler (IEA tr\u00edch d\u1eabn): nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u bi\u1ec3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c 2\u20134\/2026 gi\u1ea3m 3,6 mb\/d<\/strong>; Nh\u1eadt -1,9 mb\/d; H\u00e0n -1 mb\/d; \u1ea4n -760 kb\/d. Throughput l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 4 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 kho\u1ea3ng 5 mb\/d \u2014 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi n\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c th\u00f4, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m s\u1eafp c\u0103ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n \n M\u1ee9c Gi\u1ea3m Nh\u1eadp Kh\u1ea9u D\u1ea7u Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 (T2\u2013T4\/2026, mb\/d)<\/text>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n 0<\/text>\n -1<\/text>\n -2<\/text>\n -3<\/text>\n -4<\/text>\n Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/text>\n \n -3.6 mb\/d<\/text>\n Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n<\/text>\n \n -1.9 mb\/d<\/text>\n H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c<\/text>\n \n -1.0 mb\/d<\/text>\n \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9<\/text>\n \n -0.76 mb\/d<\/text>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: Kpler, IEA OMR th\u00e1ng 5\/2026<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n\n\n\n

Throughput qu\u00fd II\/2026 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 4,5 mb\/d<\/strong> xu\u1ed1ng 78,7 mb\/d; c\u1ea3 n\u0103m gi\u1ea3m 1,6 mb\/d xu\u1ed1ng 82,3 mb\/d. Bi\u00ean l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cao, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t middle distillate \u2014 t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 nh\u00ecn gi\u00e1 th\u00f4 m\u00e0 b\u1ecf qua diesel\/jet, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai m\u1ee9c \u201cc\u0103ng\u201d th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cung \u1ee9ng: V\u00f9ng Atlantic, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00f2ng tr\u00e1nh<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u Atlantic Basin +3,5 mb\/d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 2, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u th\u00f4 v\u00f9ng Atlantic (M\u1ef9, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Venezuela\u2026) sang th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00eda \u0111\u00f4ng Suez t\u0103ng 3,5 mb\/d<\/strong>. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng cung ch\u00e2u M\u1ef9 2026 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e2ng h\u01a1n 600 kb\/d k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, l\u00ean 1,5 mb\/d. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u Nga c\u0169ng t\u0103ng khi l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u trong n\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1m mi\u1ec5n tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n d\u1ea7u Nga tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, IEA nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh c\u00e1c lu\u1ed3ng b\u00f9 n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng \u2014 kh\u00f4ng thay th\u1ebf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n 14,4 mb\/d m\u1ea5t t\u1eeb V\u1ecbnh khi eo bi\u1ec3n v\u1eabn t\u1eafc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So v\u1edbi WTI, Brent ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 thay th\u1ebf d\u1ea7u v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n bi\u1ec3n sang ch\u00e2u \u00c1 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2 R\u1eadp X\u00ea \u00dat, UAE v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2 R\u1eadp X\u00ea \u00dat v\u00e0 UAE chuy\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang c\u1ea3ng ngo\u00e0i eo bi\u1ec3n. T\u1ed3n kho th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111ang ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u2014 nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ti\u00eau hao \u0111\u1ec7m, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ebfng m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu eo bi\u1ec3n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, \u0111\u1ec7m 2027 s\u1ebd m\u1ecfng h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u2014 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u00edt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c headline nh\u1eafc t\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng quan tr\u1ecdng cho swing d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i IEA v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u01a1 s\u1edf IEA: lu\u1ed3ng qua Hormuz m\u1edf d\u1ea7n t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 6\/2026<\/strong><\/span>. D\u00f9 v\u1eady, cung b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u1ea3 n\u0103m ch\u1ec9 102,2 mb\/d \u2014 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 3,9 mb\/d so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng tr\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t \u0111\u1ebfn qu\u00fd IV. C\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m n\u1ebfu th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn cho ph\u00e9p b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a t\u1eeb qu\u00fd III, nh\u01b0ng cung ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i: \u0111u\u00f4i r\u1ee7i ro ph\u00eda tr\u00ean<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00e1o c\u00e1o, M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Iran v\u1eabn b\u1ebf t\u1eafc v\u1ec1 m\u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh. Erik Norland (CME, 4\/2026) ghi nh\u1eadn d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u00ecm USD an to\u00e0n khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u2014 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a USD v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro, l\u00e0m kh\u00f3 giao d\u1ecbch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ede m\u1ee9c 110 USD\/th\u00f9ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 hai c\u1ef1c: th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 144 USD; th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gap xu\u1ed1ng 80\u201390 USD ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebfn \u2014 \u0111u\u00f4i hai ph\u00eda \u0111\u1ec1u d\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (OPEC WOO 2050)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng d\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a OPEC nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh d\u00e2n s\u1ed1, \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb h\u00f3a v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u2014 nh\u01b0ng th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng. 2026 l\u00e0 v\u00ed d\u1ee5: narrative t\u0103ng c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung Hormuz c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3; t\u00e1ch logic ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n khi \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh CFD. V\u1edbi t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, \u0111\u1eebng qu\u00ean t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a USD: khi DXY m\u1ea1nh, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u1ea7u quy \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 USD\/th\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ea7u CFD: Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, Brent\/WTI v\u00e0 catalyst<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Position sizing khi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y > 10 USD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Quy t\u1eafc r\u1ee7i ro 1%\/l\u1ec7nh n\u00ean gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng danh ngh\u0129a ho\u1eb7c h\u1ea1 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. Gap cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n theo tin \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n l\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf; ph\u00ed swap tr\u00ean spot CFD c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n n\u1ebfu gi\u1eef nhi\u1ec1u tu\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch mu\u1ed1n ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng nhanh tin eo bi\u1ec3n, l\u1ec7nh limit th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n market khi thanh kho\u1ea3n m\u1ecfng. T\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 ki\u1ec3u martingale tr\u00ean d\u1ea7u trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y. H\u00e3y ghi r\u00f5 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch tho\u00e1t cho c\u1ea3 hai ph\u00eda: leo thang \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y Brent v\u01b0\u1ee3t 120 USD nhanh ch\u00f3ng, trong khi tin \u201cth\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn s\u01a1 b\u1ed9\u201d c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00f3a 10\u201315 USD ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t phi\u00ean \u2014 stop qu\u00e1 s\u00e1t s\u1ebd b\u1ecb qu\u00e9t li\u00ean t\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u1ecdn Brent hay WTI?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Xem th\u00eam h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn d\u1ea7u CFD<\/a>: \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u2192 Brent; d\u1eef li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 \u2192 WTI. Th\u00e1ng 5\/2026, Brent mang premium r\u1ee7i ro V\u1ecbnh; WTI h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u M\u1ef9 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Risk-off c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o c\u1ea3 hai c\u00f9ng gi\u1ea3m \u2014 theo d\u00f5i spread Brent\u2013WTI nh\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o gi\u00e1 thay th\u1ebf sang ch\u00e2u \u00c1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Catalyst n\u00ean theo d\u00f5i<\/h3>\n\n\n\n