{"id":643,"date":"2026-05-25T15:02:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T06:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/copi-tools.com\/vn\/?p=643"},"modified":"2026-05-25T15:03:01","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T06:03:01","slug":"gold-q1-2026-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/copi-tools.com\/vn\/gold-q1-2026-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 V\u00e0ng Q1 2026: V\u00ec Sao V\u00e0ng Gi\u1ea3m Sau Khi Chi\u1ebfn Tranh B\u00f9ng Ph\u00e1t?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

R\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb leo thang th\u00ec v\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng \u2014 nh\u01b0ng sau khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t ng\u00e0y 28\/2\/2026, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m<\/strong>. Ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng 2026<\/strong> nghi\u00eam t\u00fac. V\u00e0ng giao ngay \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 5.405 USD\/oz<\/strong> ng\u00e0y 29\/1, r\u1ed3i h\u1ed3i v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 4.500 USD, kho\u1ea3ng 4.518 USD\/oz<\/strong> theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u World Gold Council (WGC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch v\u00ec sao v\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m khi chi\u1ebfn tranh n\u1ed5 ra, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ea7u Q1 t\u1eeb WGC cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 n\u00e0o, d\u00f2ng ETF v\u00e0ng<\/strong> th\u00e1ng 4 chuy\u1ec3n d\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ebf n\u00e0o, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c XAU\/USD<\/strong> quan tr\u1ecdng cho giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0ng CFD<\/strong> trong ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a 2026. Ngu\u1ed3n: WGC Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026, ETF Flows th\u00e1ng 4, b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e1ng 5, v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch CME Group th\u00e1ng 3\/2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 V\u00e0ng 2026: T\u1eeb \u0110\u1ec9nh L\u1ecbch S\u1eed \u0110\u1ebfn Ngh\u1ecbch L\u00fd Chi\u1ebfn Tranh<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u00fd I\/2026 ghi nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng LBMA PM trung b\u00ecnh qu\u00fd 4.873 USD\/oz<\/strong> \u2014 cao nh\u1ea5t m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i, t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 70% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3. \u0110\u1ec9nh 5.405 USD\/oz ng\u00e0y 29\/1 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh lo ng\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch l\u1edbn v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 pha \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. Cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4, v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda g\u1ea7n 4.611 USD\/oz<\/strong>, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111i ngang trong th\u00e1ng. Th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i cung qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u00e1ng 1. C\u00e1 nh\u00e2n t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u00e0ng 2026 \u2014 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i nhi\u1ec5u ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n \n XAU\/USD: C\u00e1c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 then ch\u1ed1t 2026<\/text>\n \n \n \n $4.000<\/text>\n \n $4.500<\/text>\n \n $5.000<\/text>\n \n $5.400<\/text>\n \n \n $5.405<\/text>\n 29\/1<\/text>\n \n Chi\u1ebfn tranh 28\/2<\/text>\n \n ~$4.518<\/text>\n \n H\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 $4.075<\/text>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: WGC, Bloomberg (minh h\u1ecda)<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n\n\n\n

Q1\/2026 Qua Con S\u1ed1: Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb K\u1ef7 L\u1ee5c, Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng T\u0103ng Nh\u1eb9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WGC ghi nh\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u Q1 \u2014 g\u1ed3m OTC \u2014 1.231 t\u1ea5n<\/strong>, t\u0103ng 2% y\/y. Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1t 193 t\u1ef7 USD<\/strong>, t\u0103ng 74% v\u00e0 l\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c qu\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u1ea1ng m\u1ee5c<\/th>Q1 2026 (t\u1ea5n)<\/th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i y\/y<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
T\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u (g\u1ed3m OTC)<\/td>1.231<\/td>+2%<\/td><\/tr>
Th\u1ecfi & xu v\u00e0ng<\/td>474<\/td>+42%<\/td><\/tr>
ETF & t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1<\/td>+62<\/td>-73% so Q1’25<\/td><\/tr>
Ch\u1ebf t\u00e1c trang s\u1ee9c<\/td>335<\/td>-23%<\/td><\/tr>
Mua r\u00f2ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/td>244<\/td>+3%<\/td><\/tr>
C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7<\/td>82<\/td>+1%<\/td><\/tr>
T\u1ed5ng cung<\/td>1.231<\/td>+2%<\/td><\/tr>
Gi\u00e1 LBMA PM trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>$4.873\/oz<\/td>+70%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Ngu\u1ed3n: WGC Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 V\u1eadt Ch\u1ea5t D\u1eabn D\u1eaft Qu\u00fd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

C\u1ea7u th\u1ecfi v\u00e0 xu 474 t\u1ea5n<\/strong> \u2014 qu\u00fd cao th\u1ee9 hai m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i. Ri\u00eang th\u1ecfi 397,7 t\u1ea5n<\/strong>, t\u0103ng 50% y\/y, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u. Theo kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, khi mua th\u1ecfi t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u1edf m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y, \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 \u00fd ch\u00ed ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i tho\u00e1t ho\u1ea3ng \u2014 \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ed3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i gom th\u00eam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ETF Ch\u1eadm L\u1ea1i \u2014 Th\u00e1ng 3 G\u00e1nh N\u1eb7ng<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

ETF v\u00e0ng Q1 v\u1eabn c\u1ed9ng 62 t\u1ea5n<\/strong> nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi +230 t\u1ea5n Q1\/2025. Qu\u1ef9 M\u1ef9 r\u00fat m\u1ea1nh th\u00e1ng 3 do \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u thanh kho\u1ea3n. ETF th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c bi\u00ean ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u2014 d\u00f2ng ra th\u00e1ng 3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch v\u00ec sao v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 y\u1ebfu tr\u01b0\u1edbc xung \u0111\u1ed9t 28\/2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trang S\u1ee9c Gi\u1ea3m Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng, Chi Ti\u00eau V\u1eabn T\u0103ng<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u1ebf t\u00e1c trang s\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 23%<\/strong> c\u00f2n 335 t\u1ea5n v\u00ec gi\u00e1 cao k\u00ecm c\u1ea7u theo kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Nh\u01b0ng chi ti\u00eau trang s\u1ee9c<\/strong> t\u0103ng 31% \u2014 ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n m\u1ed7i m\u00f3n. Th\u00e0nh th\u1eadt m\u00e0 n\u00f3i, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng cho b\u00e1n l\u1ebb v\u1eadt l\u00fd, nh\u01b0ng cho th\u1ea5y t\u00e2m l\u00fd t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 kho l\u01b0u tr\u1eef gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec Sao V\u00e0ng Gi\u1ea3m Khi Chi\u1ebfn Tranh N\u1ed5 Ra?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf CME Erik Norland n\u00eau th\u1eb3ng ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd: chi\u1ebfn tranh Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u1ebd ra bullish cho kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd \u2014 nh\u01b0ng sau 28\/2 v\u00e0ng, b\u1ea1c, b\u1ea1ch kim v\u00e0 palladium \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m. Nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ef1c ch\u1ed3ng l\u00ean nhau gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 1 nh\u1edd lo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t l\u00e0m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1eadn k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng \u2014 qua x\u0103ng v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u diesel \u2014 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u00edt c\u1eaft l\u00e3i h\u01a1n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed t\u0103ng l\u00e3i<\/strong>. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh g\u1ee3i \u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i t\u1edbi ba l\u1ea7n; ECB c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t; Fed funds futures b\u1ecf ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft l\u00e3i 2026\u20132027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi 2019\u20132023: v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng Fed n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, r\u1ed3i gi\u1ea3m khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00e0 bu\u1ed9c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. Kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m \u00e2m v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/strong> \u2014 t\u0103ng khi s\u1ee3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, suy y\u1ebfu khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c l\u00ean. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD M\u1ea1nh L\u00ean v\u00e0 D\u00f2ng Tr\u00fa \u1ea8n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

USD y\u1ebfu t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i 2024 \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u 2026, h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u00e0ng. Sau xung \u0111\u1ed9t, USD rebound nh\u01b0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n, t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m v\u1edbi kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd. Xem th\u00eam b\u00e0i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0ng \u2013 USD<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i USD, \u0111\u00f4 m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00f9 tr\u1eeb bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng danh ngh\u0129a \u2014 c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i song song XAU\/USD. So v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng euro hay yen, rebound USD th\u00e1ng 4 th\u00eam \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deleveraging, C\u00fa S\u1ed1c L\u00e3i Su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 Fed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

B\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn WGC th\u00e1ng 3 ch\u1ec9 ra \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu s\u1eb5n c\u00f3: t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ea1nh, deleveraging r\u1ed9ng, c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u thanh kho\u1ea3n. Kevin Warsh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eed l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Fed \u2014 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 5\/2026 \u2014 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp h\u01a1n, gi\u1ea3m k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n QE b\u00f9 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t bull case tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t leo thang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n, WGC ghi spread intraday v\u00e0ng trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 2 bps, b\u1ea1c kho\u1ea3ng 9 bps. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng s\u00e2u h\u01a1n, th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c m\u01b0\u1ee3t h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng th\u00e1ng 3\/2026 ch\u1ee9ng minh khi v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y ph\u1ea3i tho\u00e1t, v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Coi Kh\u1ee7ng Ho\u1ea3ng L\u00e0 “T\u1ea1m Th\u1eddi”<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd nh\u1ea5t: th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u coi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n Hormuz l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi (transitory)<\/strong> \u2014 g\u1ee3i tranh lu\u1eadn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 2021\u201322. Breakeven l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1eadn k\u1ef3 M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt r\u1ed3i h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1i; ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i theo risk-on; ph\u00ed bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thu h\u1eb9p. V\u00e0ng \u0111\u00f3ng th\u00e1ng 4 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111i ngang \u1edf 4.611 USD \u2014 ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua bi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng th\u1ea5y catalyst m\u1edbi d\u00f9 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ch\u01b0a gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea3o Chi\u1ec1u Th\u00e1ng 4: D\u00f2ng ETF v\u00e0 Mua C\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f2ng ra th\u00e1ng 3 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng 4. ETF v\u00e0ng v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ghi 6,6 t\u1ef7 USD<\/strong> d\u00f2ng v\u00e0o, m\u1ecdi khu v\u1ef1c d\u01b0\u01a1ng:<\/p>\n\n\n\n