{"id":648,"date":"2026-05-26T13:04:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:04:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/copi-tools.com\/vn\/?p=648"},"modified":"2026-05-26T13:04:38","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:04:38","slug":"silver-2026-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/copi-tools.com\/vn\/silver-2026-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 B\u1ea1c 2026: \u0110\u1ec9nh 121 USD, Th\u00e2m H\u1ee5t 5 N\u0103m v\u00e0 \u00dd Ngh\u0129a V\u1edbi XAG\/USD"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Th\u00e1ng 1\/2026, b\u1ea1c ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i 121,15 USD\/ounce<\/strong> \u2014 r\u1ed3i ch\u1ec9 trong v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n m\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, giao d\u1ecbch quanh v\u00f9ng 60 USD cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n: n\u00f3 x\u00e2y tr\u00ean th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t cung\u2013c\u1ea7u n\u0103m th\u1ee9 n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/strong>, khi\u1ebfn t\u1ed3n kho tr\u00ean m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ea5t c\u1ea1n d\u1ea7n v\u00e0 thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u1eadt l\u00fd m\u1ecfng h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi tr\u00ed nh\u1edb c\u1ee7a \u0111a s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 b\u1ea1c 2026<\/strong> d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u Silver Institute, USGS th\u00e1ng 1 v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u WGC v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t b\u1ea1c\u2013v\u00e0ng tr\u00ean XAG\/USD<\/strong>. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n giao d\u1ecbch b\u1ea1c CFD<\/strong>, b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u2014 kh\u00f4ng \u0111u\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ec9nh sau c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t squeeze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 B\u1ea1c 2026: T\u1eeb 121 USD Xu\u1ed1ng V\u00f9ng 60 USD Ch\u1ec9 Trong V\u00e0i Tu\u1ea7n<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

USGS ghi nh\u1eadn th\u00e1ng 1\/2026: \u0111\u00e1y 74,10 USD\/ounce<\/strong> (2\/1), trung b\u00ecnh th\u00e1ng 91,98 USD<\/strong> (+43% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh th\u00e1ng 12 l\u00e0 64,45 USD), \u0111\u1ec9nh 121,15 USD<\/strong> (29\/1). Cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3, spot v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 60 USD cu\u1ed1i \u2014 m\u1ee9c h\u1ed3i kho\u1ea3ng 45% t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ch\u1ec9 trong hai th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So v\u1edbi 2025: trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m 40,08 USD<\/strong> (+42% y\/y), \u0111\u00e1y 29,35 USD (2\/1) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh 75,85 USD (30\/12). B\u1ea1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi 2026 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u. C\u00e1 nh\u00e2n t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00fa b\u1eadt th\u00e1ng 1 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1edbi m\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eadt l\u00fd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi d\u00f2ng ETP, mua xu\u2013th\u1ecfi v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf futures \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t l\u00e3i thu\u00ea c\u1ef1c \u0111oan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n \n XAG\/USD: M\u1ee9c Gi\u00e1 Ch\u00ednh 2025\u20132026<\/text>\n \n \n \n $25<\/text>\n \n $50<\/text>\n \n $75<\/text>\n \n $100<\/text>\n \n $121<\/text>\n \n \n T1\/2025 $29<\/text>\n \n T12\/2025 $76<\/text>\n \n $121.15<\/text>\n 29\/1\/2026<\/text>\n \n ~$68<\/text>\n Cu\u1ed1i 3\/2026<\/text>\n Ngu\u1ed3n: USGS, Silver Institute (minh h\u1ecda)<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea3n Ch\u1ea5t K\u00e9p: Kim Lo\u1ea1i Qu\u00fd v\u00e0 Nguy\u00ean Li\u1ec7u C\u00f4ng Nghi\u1ec7p<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c c\u00f9ng nh\u00f3m kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd nh\u01b0ng c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u1ea7u r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c. WGC \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng 61% c\u1ea7u b\u1ea1c t\u1eeb c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/strong>, trong khi ph\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p\/c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng ch\u1ec9 ~33%. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn b\u1ea1c nh\u1ea1y chu k\u1ef3 h\u01a1n khi t\u00e2m l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro x\u1ea5u \u0111i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec Sao C\u01a1 Ch\u1ebf Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00e1c V\u00e0ng<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea7u 2025, lo ng\u1ea1i thu\u1ebf quan v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp Fed \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh; t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u00e0ng:b\u1ea1c tr\u00ean 85:1<\/strong> \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft th\u00e1ng 9, \u0111\u1ec9nh 107:1<\/strong> th\u00e1ng 4. Cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m b\u1ea1c b\u1ee9t t\u1ed1c khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eadt l\u00fd c\u0103ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ea1nh; th\u00e1ng 12 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 55:1<\/strong> \u2014 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb 3\/2013. Theo kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e9n n\u00e0y nhanh h\u01a1n m\u1ecdi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i qu\u1ecb d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cung: S\u1ea3n Ph\u1ea9m Ph\u1ee5, Kh\u00f3 T\u0103ng S\u1ea3n L\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

70\u201380% b\u1ea1c khai th\u00e1c l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5<\/strong> c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng, ch\u00ec, k\u1ebdm. Gi\u00e1 spot t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea1c ri\u00eang \u2014 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c kinh t\u1ebf kim lo\u1ea1i c\u01a1 s\u1edf v\u00e0 h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng. Mexico s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i Trung Qu\u1ed1c, t\u1eadp trung r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd. Th\u00e0nh th\u1eadt m\u00e0 n\u00f3i, \u0111\u00e2y m\u1edbi l\u00e0 l\u00fd do th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m N\u0103m Th\u00e2m H\u1ee5t: Case T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1 C\u1ea5u Tr\u00fac B\u1eb1ng Con S\u1ed1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

World Silver Survey 2026 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t 2025 l\u00e0 40,3 Moz (1.252 t\u1ea5n)<\/strong> \u2014 n\u0103m th\u1ee9 n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 2026 th\u00eam 46,3 Moz (1.439 t\u1ea5n)<\/strong>, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i sang n\u0103m th\u1ee9 s\u00e1u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m<\/th>C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng (Moz)<\/th>Gi\u00e1 TB (USD\/oz)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2021<\/td>\u221283,7<\/td>25,14<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>\u2212254,0<\/td>21,73<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>\u2212200,1<\/td>23,35<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>\u2212137,9<\/td>28,27<\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/td>\u221240,3<\/td>40,03<\/td><\/tr>
2026F<\/td>\u221246,3<\/td>\u2014<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Ngu\u1ed3n: Silver Institute World Silver Survey 2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

T\u00edch l\u0169y 2021\u20132026 v\u01b0\u1ee3t 762 Moz<\/strong> \u2014 kim lo\u1ea1i r\u00fat t\u1eeb t\u1ed3n kho tr\u00ean m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ea5t, kho s\u00e0n v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i. Th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p trung t\u00e2m: th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean t\u1ed3n kho th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, thanh kho\u1ea3n m\u1ecfng h\u01a1n<\/strong>. Silver Institute v\u1eabn d\u00f9ng t\u1eeb “constructive” cho tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 2026 d\u00f9 c\u00fa s\u1eadp th\u00e1ng 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e1ng 10\/2025: C\u1ea3nh B\u00e1o Thanh Kho\u1ea3n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kim lo\u1ea1i d\u1ed3n v\u00e0o kho CME, ETP t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, c\u1ea7u spot b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 \u2014 l\u00e3i thu\u00ea nh\u1ea3y v\u1ecdt, premium khu v\u1ef1c n\u1edbi r\u1ed9ng, chu\u1ed7i tinh luy\u1ec7n ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c. Sau \u0111\u00f3 kim lo\u1ea1i quay l\u1ea1i London v\u00e0 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, nh\u01b0ng b\u00e1o c\u00e1o kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u0169<\/strong>. V\u1edbi t\u00f4i, c\u00e1ch di\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ea1t n\u00e0y trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o ng\u00e0nh hi\u1ebfm g\u1eb7p v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch vi\u00ean nghi\u00eam t\u00fac.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c Gi\u00e1 2025: T\u1eeb 29 USD \u0110\u1ebfn 76 USD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f2ng ETP K\u1ef7 L\u1ee5c Theo Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

ETP b\u1ea1c c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam kho\u1ea3ng 278,1 Moz<\/strong> n\u0103m 2025 \u2014 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao th\u1ee9 hai m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao nh\u1ea5t. Xu\u2013th\u1ecfi t\u0103ng 14%<\/strong> l\u00ean 217,7 Moz. T\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m 2% c\u00f2n 1.130,6 Moz nh\u01b0ng k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u00fat kim lo\u1ea1i kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 V\u00e0ng:B\u1ea1c T\u1eeb 107:1 Xu\u1ed1ng D\u01b0\u1edbi 55:1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n theo d\u00f5i h\u1ed3i qu\u1ecb t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u00e0ng:b\u1ea1c, \u0111\u1ee3t n\u00e9n cu\u1ed1i 2025 l\u00e0 self-fulfilling \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh \u2014 ti\u1ec1n lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb v\u00e0ng sang b\u1ea1c, b\u1ea1c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh k\u00e9o th\u00eam d\u00f2ng \u0111u\u1ed5i theo. So v\u1edbi th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2010, l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 “nh\u1ea3y b\u1eadc” ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u1eadm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khai Th\u00e1c T\u0103ng Nh\u01b0ng Kh\u00f4ng L\u1ea5p \u0110\u1ea7y Th\u00e2m H\u1ee5t<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ecf 846,6 Moz (+3%)<\/strong>, Chile v\u00e0 Peru \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p ch\u00ednh; B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 do Mexico gi\u1ea3m. T\u00e1i ch\u1ebf 197,6 Moz (+2%)<\/strong> \u2014 cao nh\u1ea5t 13 n\u0103m \u2014 v\u1eabn th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t s\u00e2u. Cung ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 nhanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e1ng 1\/2026: \u0110\u1ec9nh 121 USD v\u00e0 C\u00fa S\u1eadp 38% Trong M\u1ed9t Ng\u00e0y<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1eadt l\u00fd khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i gi\u00e1<\/strong>: thi\u1ebfu h\u00e0ng, premium t\u0103ng, x\u1ebfp h\u00e0ng mua ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn; ETP v\u00e0 futures \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y th\u00eam nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u. B\u1ea1c v\u00e0o danh s\u00e1ch kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n then ch\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 (11\/2025) c\u00f9ng tin \u0111\u1ed3n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam premium \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e1c Nh\u00e2n Thanh L\u00fd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Fed theo h\u01b0\u1edbng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u; b\u1ea1c m\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 38%<\/strong> t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ec9nh xu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e1y trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y. Long \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee9u b\u1edfi c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac. So v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3, b\u1ea1c m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa ch\u1ee9ng minh beta cao h\u01a1n r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xung \u0110\u1ed9t Iran: Gi\u00f3 Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c, Kh\u00f4ng Ph\u1ea3i Haven Thu\u1ea7n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Sau nh\u1ecbp haven ban \u0111\u1ea7u, chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh gi\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u1ea7u, USD m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m \u2014 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u00e0ng 2026<\/a> c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i. B\u1ea1c ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u00f2n n\u1eb7ng h\u01a1n v\u00ec t\u00ednh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 thanh kho\u1ea3n k\u00e9m h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhu C\u1ea7u C\u00f4ng Nghi\u1ec7p B\u1ea1c: AI Thu\u1eadn, Solar Gi\u1ea3m B\u1ea1c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p 2025: 657,4 Moz (\u22123%)<\/strong>, l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m sau \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch; d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 2026 639,6 Moz<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n Kh\u00fac V\u1eabn M\u1edf R\u1ed9ng<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u AI, truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cao, xe \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng s\u1ea1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111i\u1ec7n\u2013\u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed. H\u1ee3p kim h\u00e0n c\u1ee9ng t\u0103ng 1% nh\u1edd \u00f4 t\u00f4 v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng. “C\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00e1c” gi\u1ea3m 7% ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu do ch\u1eadm b\u1ed5 sung x\u00fac t\u00e1c EO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thrifting Pin M\u1eb7t Tr\u1eddi L\u00e0 Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

PV d\u00f9ng b\u1ea1c 2025 186,6 Moz (\u22126%)<\/strong>; d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 2026 c\u00f2n 151,0 Moz (\u221219%)<\/strong>. N\u1ebfu m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh solar k\u00e9o c\u1ea7u b\u1ea1c tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh, b\u1ea1n \u0111ang l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu so v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea1c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. Gi\u00e1 cao \u0111ang th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y thay th\u1ebf nhanh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n hai n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trang S\u1ee9c v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ed3 B\u1ea1c Ch\u1ecbu \u00c1p L\u1ef1c Gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Trang s\u1ee9c 189,3 Moz (\u22128%)<\/strong>, \u0111\u1ed3 b\u1ea1c 42,1 Moz (\u221221%)<\/strong>; \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh do gi\u00e1 rupee k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 2026: 159,4 v\u00e0 33,5 Moz. Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ecdi d\u00f2ng c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng \u2014 k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tri\u1ec3n V\u1ecdng Cung: M\u1ecf, T\u00e1i Ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 USGS Th\u00e1ng 1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ecf 2026: 844,1 Moz<\/strong>, gi\u1ea3m 2,5 Moz so v\u1edbi 2025. Mexico (Tizapa, Terronera) v\u00e0 Morocco (Zgounder) b\u00f9 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n cho Peru v\u00e0 Argentina y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USGS: S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 Th\u00e1ng 1\/2026<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t 86.000 kg<\/strong>, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 flat m\/m nh\u01b0ng \u22128% y\/y<\/strong> theo s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ng\u00e0y. Nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u 283.000 kg, Mexico 222.000 kg<\/strong>. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u 505.000 kg<\/strong> \u2014 g\u1ea7n g\u1ea5p ba th\u00e1ng 12 \u2014 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu Anh (309.000 kg) v\u00e0 UAE (115.000 kg): kim lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ea3y v\u1ec1 trung t\u00e2m thanh kho\u1ea3n, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e1i Ch\u1ebf Cao Nh\u1ea5t 14 N\u0103m<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf 2026 211,3 Moz (+7%)<\/strong>; \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ph\u1ebf li\u1ec7u trang s\u1ee9c\/\u0111\u1ed3 b\u1ea1c. D\u00f9 v\u1eady v\u1eabn d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t 46,3 Moz \u2014 cung \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nh\u01b0ng kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giao D\u1ecbch B\u1ea1c CFD: \u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 trung h\u1ea1n; c\u00fa s\u1eadp th\u00e1ng 1 ch\u1ee9ng minh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 P&L ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 hai tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i kh\u00e1c nhau<\/strong>. WGC \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00fd do b\u1ea1c CFD c\u1ea7n ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch r\u1ee7i ro ri\u00eang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1<\/th>V\u00e0ng<\/th>B\u1ea1c<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Spread intraday TB (bps)<\/td>2,3<\/td>9,3<\/td><\/tr>
Spread intraday max (bps)<\/td>11,0<\/td>125,3<\/td><\/tr>
Beta d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n so v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng<\/td>1,0<\/td>~1,3<\/td><\/tr>
T\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng c\u1ea7u c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/td>~33%<\/td>~61%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Ngu\u1ed3n: WGC, 3\/2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u00e0y b\u1ea1c kho\u1ea3ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i v\u00e0ng<\/strong>; bi\u00ean 38% m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan nh\u01b0ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0i ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m\/ng\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng 2026. N\u1ebfu quy t\u1eafc r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0ng l\u00e0 1% t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n\/l\u1ec7nh, gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ea1c ho\u1eb7c n\u1edbi stop t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng th\u1eeba \u2014 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. Xem th\u00eam h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn b\u1ea1c CFD<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0ng D\u1eabn, B\u1ea1c Theo<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh Granger: l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o b\u1ea1c \u1edf lag 1 ph\u00fat<\/strong>; chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4ng \u00fd ngh\u0129a. B\u1ea1c l\u00e0 price-taker. Theo XAU\/USD tr\u01b0\u1edbc, r\u1ed3i v\u00e0o XAG\/USD v\u1edbi size nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n; beta ~1,3, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi v\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spread, Gap v\u00e0 Catalyst<\/h3>\n\n\n\n